How Covid-19 will end and 7-Reasons why it is nothing like the last pandemic of a 100 years ago!
History is repeating itself as we sit quarantined in the Covid-19 pandemic. A 102 years ago, the world was in a similar position when hit by a virus that unleashed one of the deadliest pandemics in the recorded history of mankind. Known as the Spanish Flu of 1918, it infected 1 out of 3 people across the globe and killed anywhere between 17 to 50 million during the two years that it lasted.
Understandably, people are turning to the Spanish Flu today to predict the outcome of Covid-19 and to learn lessons, if any. However, Covid-19 is nothing like the Spanish Flu even though both manifest many similar medical symptoms in the infected. The 7 reasons below tell us why.
Reason No 1: There is a fundamental difference between the two pandemics. The virus behind the two belong to biologically different families. Covid-19 is caused by a Corona Virus while the Influenza virus led to the Spanish Flu.
Reason No 2: Covid-19, so far, is quite stable in how it mutating. Only 6 main mutations have been reported as of August 2020. A recently seen mutation, D614G, growing in circulation all over the world, is coinciding with a drop in death rates in Europe. Good news is that this mutation is less lethal than the original Wuhan Virus even though it is 10-times more infectious.
On the other hand, the Spanish Flu took a turn for the worse when a deadly mutation was born in the war trenches and military hospitals of the World War 1.
Reason No 3: Covid-19 has successfully spread across climates all over the world and is seen little impacted by seasonal changes so far.
On the other hand, the influenza virus that caused the Spanish Flu has a distinct seasonality. It circulates and mutate more during the winter months. Which is why, the Spanish Flu took a turn for the deadly in the August of 1918 before the onset of the winters.
How a pandemic progresses depends upon how its virus is mutating. The virus could progress into more lethal yet less infectious OR vice versa. This unpredictability makes it difficult to compare any two pandemics, especially if both belong to biologically different families.
Reason No 4: The corona virus that has caused the Covid-19 is a new virus, so new that even though it is genetically related to SARS 2002, yet it is not the same. Its first transmission to humans took place only in end 2019. Hence humans do not carry a natural immunity to it making this virus potentially deadly for the elderly or for the ones with co-morbidities.
On the other hand, the Spanish Flu virus has been around for thousands of years and generations of humans are naturally immune to it.
Elderly population in 1918 carried a natural immunity due to smaller epidemics of influenza virus that had been taking place from 1878 onwards till 1918 when the bigger one struck. Which is why a 75-year-old back then was less likely to die from an influenza virus than a 25-year old.
Reason No 5: The Spanish Flu was a product of its time. World War 1 was in its final year and troop movements across the world had led to a rapid spread of the Spanish Flu. However, countries at war, not wishing to appear weak in front of the enemy and also to maintain the morale of their troops under-reported the fatalities of the Spanish Flu. The war trenches and army hospitals became hot zones that virologists today would be so wary of.
Back home too, civic authorities were hesitant to impose strict quarantine measures because people involved in production of war goods had to be kept at work.
The pandemic was swept under the carpet as a particularly virulent strain of seasonal flu which is not what it was.
Reason No 6: Back in 1918, sanitation, hygiene and malnutrition were key issues all over the world, often causing diseases prevalent at that time — Dysentery, Scurvy and Tuberculosis. This ensured that people already afflicted with these conditions became easy victims of Spanish Flu when it struck.
Reason No 7: What is most striking about the comparison between the two pandemics is not so much the similarity but difference due to the distance that medicine has travelled in the last hundred years. Back then a virus had never been studied because of lack of powerful enough microscopes. Also, antivirals, antibiotics, protective gear and respirators didn’t exist .
Similarly, it was impossible to screen and test the mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic cases like it was not easy to do contact tracing because cities seemed to get infected overnight.
Conclusion
Spanish Flu occurred along with World War One making it more deadly. Far more people were infected and killed than in the previous pandemics. The war allowed the Spanish Flu to run its course — uncontrollable, unpredictable and deadly. Good news is that no pandemic would be allowed to unleash in a similar manner today.
Conclusion №1: Spanish Flu came in waves. It was first officially reported in May 1918 before peaking in October of the same year. Soon after, the death rate fell down abruptly as the most severe form of virus killed its hosts and died along with them. This is how the Spanish Flu eased out.
The Covid-19 is not expected to follow the wave-like pattern of the Spanish Flu because of stability in how it is mutating and also because it less impacted by seasonal changes. Instead, it is expected to follow an upward graph with each plateaus spiking to the next plateau as more people get infected.
Conclusion №2: Covid-19 is a new virus. Hence, ‘Herd Immunity’ would take a long time because the percentage of people required to be infected to reach levels of Herd Immunity today is a 65% of the 7.6 billion population versus a 35% that was required to be infected of the 1.3 billion back in 1918. Consequently, ‘Herd Immunity’ itself comes with a heavy price of casualties.
Conclusion №4: ‘Herd Immunity’ and the vaccination drive are expected to go hand in hand till early 2022. Until then, let us hope that Covid-19 progresses to a milder version of the original Wuhan one. With mutation D614G in growing circulation, this may already be happening since it is 10-times more infectious than the original Wuhan virus but less deadly.
Conclusion No5: There is absolutely no way of knowing how and when the Covid-19 will end unless successfully intercepted by a vaccine. Estimate goes that it will continue to infect until early 2022 even though the death rate will gradually reduce. Until then ‘Social Distancing’ remains to be our best measure, like it was in 1918! This safely is the easiest similarity between the two pandemics.
